Outlook
Unemployment is now at a very low level in both parts of the Öresund region. In particular, the labour market in the Capital Region of Denmark is also being hit by a serious labour shortage. The situation will also remain even if the economy grows at a slower rate.
Current population forecasts from Statistics Denmark and Region Skåne show that the population of working age in the Danish Öresund region (and particularly in the Capital Region of Denmark) will drop within the next few years. The number of cohorts who reach retirement age exceeds the number of those cohorts who are entering the ages of the active working population. This gap will lead to a reduced labour force supply. However, the negative trend is subdued by economic effects (labour force participation due to improved chances for jobs) and by commuting from the border regions of Skåne and Schleswig-Holstein, as well as labour immigration from eastern Europe. This trend can be compared to Skåne’s expected population growth that is characterised by a stable growth. The population growth in Skåne is largely due to the sharp migration to the county. Above all, persons of working age move to the county and thus contribute to an increase of the labour force.
- Employment in the Öresund region by location of residence
Source: Ørestat
The demographic imbalance of the Öresund region implies that the economic development of the Danish side of the Öresund region is gradually becoming dependent on a labour force supply from neighbouring regions. In particular, commuting from Skåne has become an opportunity for Danish employers to solve the acute bottleneck problems. Without commuting, labour development would have been more restrained - at least in the Capital Region of Denmark - and there are no visible signs that predict that this trend will be broken during the coming decade.
